{"result":{"generated_at":1792376294,"status":"collecting_history","summary":"Collecting history: 0.6 of 30 days, 4461 scored launches so far, base collapse rate 93.9%. Skipping launches marked avoid would have skipped 36.2% of collapses and 15.7% of the launches that survived; collapse rate 92.2% unfiltered, 89.9% after the filter (1064 analyzed launches). Strongest flag: CreatorBots with 100.0% collapses (1.1x base) over 42 flagged launches.","outcome":"liquidity fell at least 80% from its peak within 24 hours of launch","outcome_hours":24,"window_days":30,"window_from":1789697894,"window_to":1792289894,"history_days":0.5594097222222222,"full_report_after_days":30,"launches_in_window":27777,"eligible_launches":4461,"analyzed_launches":1064,"base_rate":0.9388029589778076,"survival_base_rate":0.07800751879699248,"verdicts":[{"verdict":"ok","launches":169,"collapsed":124,"collapse_rate":0.7337278106508875,"collapse_rate_ci95":[0.6624320009002025,0.7946338906444255],"lift":0.7958067181779249,"survived":45,"survival_rate":0.26627218934911245,"survival_rate_ci95":[0.20536610935557448,0.33756799909979734],"survival_lift":3.4134169815356104},{"verdict":"caution","launches":527,"collapsed":502,"collapse_rate":0.952561669829222,"collapse_rate_ci95":[0.9309087863276445,0.9676643473529108],"lift":1.03315557257726,"survived":25,"survival_rate":0.04743833017077799,"survival_rate_ci95":[0.0323356526470891,0.06909121367235535],"survival_lift":0.6081251000205756},{"verdict":"avoid","launches":368,"collapsed":355,"collapse_rate":0.9646739130434783,"collapse_rate_ci95":[0.940505286479969,0.9792411862116288],"lift":1.0462926029340072,"survived":13,"survival_rate":0.035326086956521736,"survival_rate_ci95":[0.02075881378837126,0.05949471352003102],"survival_lift":0.4528548978522786}],"filters":[{"skips":["avoid"],"population_size":1064,"collapses":981,"skipped":368,"taken":696,"collapses_avoided":355,"collapses_avoided_share":0.36187563710499493,"survivors_skipped":13,"survivors_skipped_share":0.1566265060240964,"collapse_rate_unfiltered":0.9219924812030075,"collapse_rate_taken":0.8994252873563219},{"skips":["avoid","caution"],"population_size":1064,"collapses":981,"skipped":895,"taken":169,"collapses_avoided":857,"collapses_avoided_share":0.873598369011213,"survivors_skipped":38,"survivors_skipped_share":0.4578313253012048,"collapse_rate_unfiltered":0.9219924812030075,"collapse_rate_taken":0.7337278106508875}],"flags":[{"flag":"mint_authority_active","population":"eligible_launches","population_size":4461,"base_rate":0.9388029589778076,"flagged":0,"hits":0,"hit_rate":null,"hit_rate_ci95":null,"lift":null,"recall":0.0,"daily":[{"day":"2026-10-17","flagged":0,"hits":0,"hit_rate":null,"base_rate":0.937799043062201},{"day":"2026-10-18","flagged":0,"hits":0,"hit_rate":null,"base_rate":0.944206008583691}]},{"flag":"freeze_authority_active","population":"eligible_launches","population_size":4461,"base_rate":0.9388029589778076,"flagged":0,"hits":0,"hit_rate":null,"hit_rate_ci95":null,"lift":null,"recall":0.0,"daily":[{"day":"2026-10-17","flagged":0,"hits":0,"hit_rate":null,"base_rate":0.937799043062201},{"day":"2026-10-18","flagged":0,"hits":0,"hit_rate":null,"base_rate":0.944206008583691}]},{"flag":"serial_creator","population":"eligible_launches","population_size":4461,"base_rate":0.9388029589778076,"flagged":1115,"hits":1096,"hit_rate":0.9829596412556054,"hit_rate_ci95":[0.9735385284075017,0.9890642207215977],"lift":1.0470350906497745,"recall":0.2617000955109838,"daily":[{"day":"2026-10-17","flagged":877,"hits":862,"hit_rate":0.9828962371721779,"base_rate":0.937799043062201},{"day":"2026-10-18","flagged":238,"hits":234,"hit_rate":0.9831932773109243,"base_rate":0.944206008583691}]},{"flag":"creator_collapsed_before","population":"eligible_launches","population_size":4461,"base_rate":0.9388029589778076,"flagged":1216,"hits":1194,"hit_rate":0.9819078947368421,"hit_rate_ci95":[0.9727581237276859,0.9880223579348513],"lift":1.0459147847232695,"recall":0.2851002865329513,"daily":[{"day":"2026-10-17","flagged":968,"hits":950,"hit_rate":0.981404958677686,"base_rate":0.937799043062201},{"day":"2026-10-18","flagged":248,"hits":244,"hit_rate":0.9838709677419355,"base_rate":0.944206008583691}]},{"flag":"creator_bots","population":"analyzed_launches","population_size":1064,"base_rate":0.9219924812030075,"flagged":42,"hits":42,"hit_rate":1.0,"hit_rate_ci95":[0.9161983874908382,1.0],"lift":1.0846075433231397,"recall":0.04281345565749235,"daily":[{"day":"2026-10-17","flagged":37,"hits":37,"hit_rate":1.0,"base_rate":0.92046783625731},{"day":"2026-10-18","flagged":5,"hits":5,"hit_rate":1.0,"base_rate":0.9282296650717703}]},{"flag":"funding_cluster","population":"analyzed_launches","population_size":1064,"base_rate":0.9219924812030075,"flagged":39,"hits":34,"hit_rate":0.8717948717948718,"hit_rate_ci95":[0.7329395096236953,0.9439726505197168],"lift":0.9455552941791474,"recall":0.034658511722731905,"daily":[{"day":"2026-10-17","flagged":34,"hits":30,"hit_rate":0.8823529411764706,"base_rate":0.92046783625731},{"day":"2026-10-18","flagged":5,"hits":4,"hit_rate":0.8,"base_rate":0.9282296650717703}]},{"flag":"same_block_buyers","population":"analyzed_launches","population_size":1064,"base_rate":0.9219924812030075,"flagged":445,"hits":418,"hit_rate":0.9393258426966292,"hit_rate_ci95":[0.9131617657645417,0.9579696088673999],"lift":1.018799894627129,"recall":0.4260958205912334,"daily":[{"day":"2026-10-17","flagged":374,"hits":349,"hit_rate":0.9331550802139037,"base_rate":0.92046783625731},{"day":"2026-10-18","flagged":71,"hits":69,"hit_rate":0.971830985915493,"base_rate":0.9282296650717703}]},{"flag":"known_snipers","population":"analyzed_launches","population_size":1064,"base_rate":0.9219924812030075,"flagged":791,"hits":754,"hit_rate":0.9532237673830595,"hit_rate_ci95":[0.9361907395689293,0.9658757853839672],"lift":1.0338736885785682,"recall":0.7686034658511722,"daily":[{"day":"2026-10-17","flagged":639,"hits":607,"hit_rate":0.9499217527386542,"base_rate":0.92046783625731},{"day":"2026-10-18","flagged":152,"hits":147,"hit_rate":0.9671052631578947,"base_rate":0.9282296650717703}]},{"flag":"concentrated_first_buyers","population":"analyzed_launches","population_size":1064,"base_rate":0.9219924812030075,"flagged":509,"hits":429,"hit_rate":0.8428290766208252,"hit_rate_ci95":[0.8086557947402837,0.87186622219438],"lift":0.9141387742350234,"recall":0.43730886850152906,"daily":[{"day":"2026-10-17","flagged":424,"hits":358,"hit_rate":0.8443396226415094,"base_rate":0.92046783625731},{"day":"2026-10-18","flagged":85,"hits":71,"hit_rate":0.8352941176470589,"base_rate":0.9282296650717703}]}],"method":["Population: launches whose liquidity peaked at 5 SOL or 500 USD or more, so a collapse is measurable","Only launches at least 24 hours old are scored, so every outcome is fully observed","Creator flags use the creator history as it was at launch time, never later collapses","First-buyer flags are scored on launches whose first buyers were analyzed, against the base rate of that same group","hit_rate_ci95 is the Wilson interval; lift is hit_rate divided by base_rate","Verdicts and filters are scored on analyzed launches, with the verdict rebuilt from launch-time flags by the same rules new_launches uses; a collapse already seen never counts as a flag","Until 100 analyzed launches are 24 hours old, the report is an early read: outcomes within 6 hours of launch (status early_read)"]}}